Heinz Bayer - Owner Bäckerei & Café Bayer GmbH

Bäckerei Bayer is an owner-managed business with a clear focus on the end customer. In addition to retail sales in its shops, the company operates seven vehicles for mobile and stationary direct sales at 15 locations, plus two vehicles providing snacks to corporate and commercial clients. In this interview, owner Heinz Bayer discusses how he has noticeably reduced returns without losing sight of sales, and why the close collaboration with his foodforecast account manager makes all the difference for him.

Could you please introduce your business?

We are a small, owner-managed business, and direct contact with our customers is at the heart of what we do. Beyond our shop sales, we operate seven vehicles for mobile and stationary direct sales across 15 locations in total. We also have two additional vehicles that supply snacks to corporate and commercial clients.

What were the initial challenges in your business?

Our biggest challenge was placing the right pre-orders for every individual sales location, whether stationary in a shop or mobile. Calculating daily promotions was particularly difficult. Because pre-orders weren't working well with the on-site staff, I took over the ordering process myself for a while. Additionally, we had to produce snacks for our vehicles centrally in the bakery and forecast them accurately—while ensuring they remained as fresh as possible.

What was your goal when you approached foodforecast?

We wanted support with our ordering process and, above all, to reduce the time spent on it.

What has changed in your business since introducing foodforecast?

Ten of our locations now use foodforecast, including the mobile sales vans. We have set a target return rate of 15%. We enter our sales figures from the last few months, and foodforecast calculates the order quantities based on that. Reducing returns worked quickly; together with our account manager, Ms. Arndt, we then fine-tuned the optimal balance between lower returns and higher sales. Our snacks are now also included in the forecasting. You have to spend some time getting to grips with foodforecast at the beginning to find the right settings, but it has definitely been worth it.

What is the greatest added value of the software for you?

The greatest added value for us is clearly the reduction in returns.

Are there any special features in your production that foodforecast covers?

One special feature is our snacks: we had to work with Ms. Arndt to find the right settings for the forecasts to work, but it’s running well now. Another feature involves high-value, premium products like Danish pastries: the value of using foodforecast is particularly high here, as returns on these items are especially painful. It’s a similar situation with breads that have longer baking times. It gets challenging when a vehicle suddenly breaks down—which happens to us occasionally, for example, if a driver is ill—and two routes have to be combined into one.

Do you communicate your partnership with foodforecast to your customers?

Not directly; we don't post about it on social media, for example. However, I think it would generally make sense to be more open about it—stickers on the counter pointing it out would be a good idea, for instance. We are more active in communicating our collaboration with Too Good To Go because that is sold directly to the customer. Especially when it comes to sustainability, it’s good to have an answer ready if a product happens to be unavailable.

Would you recommend foodforecast?

Yes, absolutely. I’m not active in any official working groups, but I speak openly about the topic with my colleagues and recommend foodforecast to them.

Has your business become more sustainable thanks to foodforecast?

Yes, we have become more sustainable: less energy consumption, less labor time, and fewer raw materials wasted due to lower returns—that’s fantastic.

How have your key performance indicators developed?

"To put it upfront: the savings we achieve by using foodforecast are significantly higher than what we pay for it. Foodforecast pays for itself."

In concrete terms, our key performance indicators have developed as follows: we have increased our revenue—if you look at sales volume in terms of units, we have increased sales by around 12%. Returns have decreased by 11%. While our return rate was still at 21% in the previous year, it is now at 18.7% thanks to the use of foodforecast. A clear improvement.

What was the employee feedback regarding the implementation?

"At the beginning, there was definitely some resistance; phrases like 'That won't work' were heard. However, as soon as you show the employees the data and the numbers, they calm down—no employee can calculate as quickly as the system. It is important to involve the employees from the very beginning. New employees are often easier to convince, while experienced employees usually understand the system faster."

Do you have any suggestions for improvement or wishes for the future?

"I would like to see snow forecasts integrated even better into the predictions. For a very good result, it is important that an employee on-site engages intensively with the integration of the foodforecast software; that is something to keep in mind. The customer support from foodforecast is excellent, but you still need someone who actually implements the optimization suggestions in the bakery."

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