Less gut feeling, more forecast: How branch planning works with AI-based forecasting

Challenge: Staff shortages and inefficient planning

Monday, 8:00: The bakery branch is understaffed and the queue is getting longer and longer. Tuesday, 15:00: Three employees stand behind the counter bored, no customer is in sight. A scenario that reflects the reality of many bakeries and catering businesses. While guests expect consistently high quality service, branch managers are struggling with staff shortages, fluctuating sales and pressure to reduce costs and ensure availability at the same time.

In many companies, personnel planning is still based on experience and gut feeling. Excel tables are filled by hand, shift plans are created according to historical patterns and staffing levels are estimated. However, these methods reach their limits when unpredictable events such as weather changes, vacations, holidays, local events, strikes or seasonal fluctuations affect customer frequency.

The consequences are far-reaching: high costs due to overstaffing in quiet times, loss of revenue due to understaffing during peak hours with correspondingly poor service, and stressed teams. Especially in times of a shortage of skilled workers, it is clear that inefficient planning not only causes costs but can also overburden valuable workers.

Solution: AI-based sales forecasts at branch level

Data-based branch planning is revolutionizing the traditional approach through precise forecasts based on comprehensive data analysis. Instead of relying on assumptions, modern systems use artificial intelligence to recognize complex patterns in historical data, match with external factors and derive precise forecasts from this.

What is AI-based branch planning?

AI-based branch planning is an intelligent system that combines various data sources to create precise forecasts for customer frequency, sales and corresponding staffing requirements. In contrast to manual planning, this not only looks at past values, but also systematically includes external factors and forecasts.

What data is included in the forecast?

• Sales history, order data, returns data

• Weather data, holidays and vacations, local events

• Any other data points such as: traffic data, strikes, ticket bookings, reservations, hotel bookings, student & student numbers

• Location factors and customer frequency

• Marketing campaigns and promotions

Intelligent planning automatically creates recommendations for optimal staffing at different times of day. Branch management receives specific recommendations for action.

Benefits for employee management and personnel costs

Implementing AI-based planning provides measurable benefits for all parties involved:

Cost savings through optimized personnel planning

Accurate forecasts significantly reduce both overstaffing and understaffing. The savings are due to:

• Avoiding understaffing during unexpected peak times

• Reducing idle times when overstaffing

• Optimized break planning and shift distribution

Improved work quality for teams

AI-based planning ensures predictable work processes. Employees can rely on predictable working hours, experience less stress due to unexpected situations and benefit from a balanced distribution of work. This results in:

• Lower turnover and higher team satisfaction

• Fewer absences due to reduced stress

• Better work-life balance through predictable shifts

Relief for managers

Branch managers are relieved of time-consuming planning tasks and can concentrate on strategic tasks. Instead of puzzling shift schedules on a daily basis, they receive ready-made recommendations and can use their time for employee management, quality assurance and customer service.

Effects on personnel deployment and service

Through precise forecasts, personnel deployment is optimally adjusted to actual demand. This means:

• Sufficient staffing during peak hours for short waiting times

• Expert advice without time pressure

• Fresh products through needs-based production

• Relaxing atmosphere for employees and guests

Integration into existing systems

AI-based planning systems adapt flexibly to existing operating processes. Integration is carried out in such a way that existing working methods do not have to be changed abruptly. Modern systems are designed to work with various data sources and can therefore be easily implemented into existing systems.

Conclusion: Intelligent planning as a competitive advantage

Data-based AI branch planning is no longer just a dream of the future, but a decisive competitive advantage in today's bakery and catering industry. Companies that rely on precise forecasts benefit in several ways:

• Cost reduction: personnel costs are reduced

• Quality improvement: Better service through optimal staffing

• Employee satisfaction: predictable working hours and reduced stress

• Management support: relieving branch management of routine tasks

• Sustainability: More efficient use of resources

The days when branch planning was based on gut feeling and experience are gone. Anyone who still relies on manual planning today is not only giving away money, but also the opportunity for happier teams and happier customers. A change to data-based planning is not just a technical modernization — it is the basis for sustainable and efficient operational management. The investment in intelligent planning systems pays off after just a few months and creates sustainable added value for all parties involved.